Episode Details

Assuming we end factory farming before 2100, which factor will have contributed the most?92 votes so far. Voting closes in 25 days. Place your vote or view results.Alternative proteinsSocial moral changes

Bullet point summary:

• Cultivated meat could have a price between $15/kg and $30/kg according to reputable technoeconomic analysis, which we review and explain.
• We present an interactive demand-side economic model where we translate that price to market share: https://pabloamc.github.io/Cultivated_meat/interactive.html
• Some species, like pork and especially chicken, are tough to replace with cultivated meat. Others, like cows and seafood, are more significantly more tractable. This could be good for shrimp and fish.
• Beachhead products exist, in particular foie-gras and high-end fish.
• Disruptive innovation economic theory says cultivated meat will have a hard time because there is no pressing problem that mainstream people perceive, but it is feasible in the same way electric cars are disrupting petrol cars.
• Some of the main advantages of cultivated meat include significantly addressing vegan attrition rates, by lowering the perceived social or health taxes. Long term, this should make conventional meat less and less socially acceptable: no longer a “necessary evil”.
• If electric cars are a good guide, government (or China) support will be [...]

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Outline:

(05:12) Introduction

(09:43) Technoeconomic analysis

(16:31) My conclusions

(17:37) From price to consumer behaviour

(25:06) Demand and disruption

(30:34) Conclusion

(34:56) Bibliography

(35:02) Appendix: The science of cultivated meat

(36:46) Cell lines

(38:09) Cultivated media

(41:01) Biorreactor

(44:27) Humbird, 2022

(45:38) Negulescu, 2023

(46:55) Pasitka, 2024

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First published:
June 26th, 2026

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ED2ag8hYTWf4kmL3x/cultivating-hope-calibrating-the-expectations-for-cultivated

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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