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How the Fed Reads Core PCE at 3.4 Percent
Season 2
Episode 82
Published 1 week, 4 days ago
Description
On June 25, 2026, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge hit 3.4% year-over-year, matching the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down what that number actually tells us: the composition of core PCE, why services inflation is stubborn, and how the Fed is interpreting this data ahead of its July meeting. They explore the gap between headline and core, the role of housing and healthcare services, and whether the Fed’s framework can handle an inflation reading that keeps drifting above target. Plus a look at how the ten-year breakeven rate, now at 2.2%, signals market skepticism about a return to 2%.