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If You're Bearish On Strategy You're Actually Bearish On Bitcoin — Here's Why

Episode 38 Published 1 week, 3 days ago
Description

Sam Callahan, Nick Payton, and Alexandre Laizet join Tyler Rowe to break down why STRC at $84 is a 13.7% yield opportunity, what caused the cascading peg breach, and why being bearish on Strategy means being bearish on Bitcoin.

*In this episode:*
✅ Why STRC at $84 represents a 13.7% effective yield — and Sam Callahan's case for why the numbers say it recovers

✅ The cascading liquidation event explained — leveraged carry trades in traditional finance, not DeFi, hit the same level and broke the peg in a cascade from 90 to 82

✅ Why Strategy retiring convertible debt actually improved credit quality — and why the market got it backwards

✅ If you're bearish on Strategy, you're bearish on Bitcoin over the next five to ten years — Sam Callahan makes the case

✅ Three buckets for Bitcoin investors — self-custody Bitcoin, digital equity (MSTR), digital credit (STRC/SATA) — and who each is for

✅ Alexandre's framework: Strike offers Bitcoin-backed loans, Strategy issues digital credit — different sides of the same trade

✅ Odell's tweet — "never put yourself in a position where you need Bitcoin price to go up in the short term" — and why four analysts think that's exactly what Strategy has avoided

✅ BitGo hits Fortune 500 at #273 — and how the inventor of Bitcoin's 2-of-3 multisig became the first infrastructure play to go public

✅ Orange BTC's World Cup campaign — buying 1 Bitcoin for every Brazil goal

*TIMESTAMPS:*
00:00 Cold Open
01:58 Navigating BTC / MSTR Bear Market
02:34 STRC, SATA Digital Credit Price Shocks
18:29 Market (Over)Reactions To Strategy
20:24 The Role of Investor Relations
28:37 Durable Bitcoin Treasury Strategies
39:02 Bitcoiner Criticism of Treasuries
59:52 Competition vs. Collaboration in BTC
1:06:57 Expanding Leveraged BTC Exposure
1:10:02 Oranje's World Cup Promotion
1:12:48 BitGo's Impact on Bitcoin Adoption

*🎙️ Featured Guests:*
Sam Callahan — Director of Bitcoin Strategy and Research, OranjeBTC.

Follow Sam at https://twitter.com/@samcallah

OranjeBTC: https://oranjebtc.com

Nick Payton — VP of Marketing, BitGo.

Follow Nick at https://twitter.com/@NickDPayton

BitGo: https://bitgo.com

Alexandre Laizet — Board Director of Bitcoin Strategy, Capital B.

Follow Alexandre at https://twitter.com/@AlexandreLaizet

Capital B: https://cptlb.com/

*🤝 SUPPORT OUR SHOW:*
BitGo is the institutional-grade digital asset infrastructure trusted by thousands of institutions worldwide. A publicly traded company on the NYSE, BitGo offers regulated custody, OTC trading, financing, and settlement under one roof — and holds a federally chartered national bank license from the OCC. Learn more at https://bit.ly/bitGo

COLDCARD is the industry-leading Bitcoin hardware wallet. Secure your Bitcoin at https://bit.ly/coinkiteStore — use referral code 6BT to get 6% off at checkout!

Arch Lending offers the most transparent Bitcoin-backed borrowing experience in crypto — industry-leading rates from 8.49%, qualified custody, no rehypothecation, and verifiable segregated addresses. Simple terms and public pricing at every size. Learn more at https://bit.ly/archlending

XCE Connecting Excellence Group is the UK's listed Bitcoin treasury recruitment company — placing senior talent into Bitcoin companies globally and helping operating businesses build on a Bitcoin standard. Learn more at https://bit.ly/XCEio

Hemi — Activate compliant Bitcoin yield without leaving custody. Follow them at https://twitter.com/@hemi_xyz and learn more at https://bit.ly/hemiXYZ

*🔗 Resources:*
🔔 Follow Bitcoin Treasuries: https://twitter.com/@btctreasuries

🔔 Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/@tylercompiler

🔔 Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@bitcointreasuriesnet

📊 Track every Bitcoin treasury company at https://bitcointre

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