Episode Details

Jeremy Grantham just called this the most expensive U.S. stock market in history and warned of a potential 70% decline — on the same day the Nasdaq has been up huge the past year. So who's right: the legendary bear, or the tape? This episode argues the answer is "both," and that the real skill isn't picking a side — it's managing risk so you can ride a momentum market and step aside before the big fall.

We break down why "right and early is still wrong," and lay out a practical framework that blends fundamental and technical analysis: let valuation tell you how big the risk is, and let price action tell you when it's actually happening.

In this episode:

• What Grantham said on CNBC — and why the interviewer's pushback matters
• The permabear trap: how being right at the wrong time costs you real money
• The two ways to be wrong in a momentum market (the wipeout vs. the years of missed gains)
• Why fundamentals measure the size of the risk, not the timing
• How technicals give you a rules-based exit instead of an ego-based guess
• A simple two-layer framework: fundamentals set your risk budget, technicals trigger your exit
• What to do right now when valuations scream "expensive" but the trend is still up