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Why the Fed Is Suddenly Talking About International Spillovers
Description
With the FOMC holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, Chair Kevin Warsh surprised markets this week by citing international spillovers as a key risk. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh actually said during the June 2026 press conference, why the Fed is now watching events like the Venezuela earthquakes and Iran's Hormuz threats, and how a potential oil supply shock could complicate the inflation outlook. They also discuss the recent drop in 10-year breakeven inflation to 2.18 percent and what it signals about market expectations. Plus, a look at why factory job cuts near crisis levels from the S&P report are giving the Fed pause, even as the labor market remains tight overall. This episode drills into one specific shift in Fed communication and what it means for the next few meetings.