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Why the Feds Inflation Forecasts Keep Missing
Season 2
Episode 74
Published 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Description
Episode 74 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May — the highest since October 2023 — Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed's inflation forecasts have consistently undershot. They examine the sticky services component, the fading impact of goods disinflation, and whether the FOMC's reaction function is behind the curve. Using fresh data from the June 25, 2026 market close, they ask: is the Fed's own framework the problem? A focused conversation on forecast errors, the neutral rate debate, and what it means for the timing of rate cuts.