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What Sticky Core PCE Means for the Fed's Next Move
Season 2
Episode 75
Published 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Description
On June 25, 2026, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed core PCE hitting 3.4%, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into this specific number: why it's sticky, what it tells us about services inflation versus goods disinflation, and how the FOMC might react at the next meeting. They connect the data to the 4.39% ten-year yield and the flat Fed funds rate at 3.63%, asking whether the market's rate-cut expectations are too optimistic. A focused, numbers-driven conversation on the inflation puzzle that keeps Fed officials up at night.