Episode Details
Back to EpisodesFSD: The Great Rotation
Description
In this FSD episode, the focus is on the rotation happening under the surface of a historic momentum market. There's a look at what SpaceX's post-IPO round trip teaches about order flow, then a breakdown of the momentum basket driving everything (Micron, SanDisk, Intel) and the decision rules for knowing when momentum is fading. The most interesting signal: beaten-down names starting to escape what's called the "factor kill box," flipping from red-red-red to red-green-green, which is where the next opportunities may show up if the fundamentals back it. Also covered: emerging strength in health care and consumer finance, why bonds make no sense right now, a pushback on Jeremy Grantham's bear call, and Micron inspiring TSM to raise prices.
- (00:00) SpaceX's $800B round trip and the lesson in order flow
- (02:00) The historic momentum rally and what's in the basket
- (04:00) When to exit: two red days, trend break, blowoff top
- (05:30) Emerging opportunity in health care and Medicare Advantage names
- (07:30) Consumer finance strength: Dave, Enova, Bread, adding to Sezzle
- (09:00) Travel, leisure, and shrugging off the Strait of Hormuz
- (10:30) The great rotation and the trifecta factor doom basket explained
- (13:00) Names escaping the kill box and Microsoft's big green bar
- (15:30) Adding to Reddit in a retail-driven market
- (16:30) The bicentennial time capsule bit
- (19:00) Pushing back on Jeremy Grantham's bear case
- (21:00) Why there's no reason to own bonds and building synthetic dividends
- (22:30) Midterm volatility and the base case for a rotation
- (24:00) The bull case vs the sentiment-driven bear case
- (25:30) The memory trade is real: earnings, and Micron inspiring TSM to raise prices
- (27:30) Why it's not a bubble and a possible shuffle in semi leadership
About the show: Non-Consensus Investing is Ram Ahluwalia's running commentary on markets, where he shares how he's actually positioning capital and talks through the ideas most investors are missing. Real-time analysis, specific names, and a bias toward what's overlooked rather than what's crowded.
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