Episode Details

In this FSD episode, the show goes on. Micron reported blowout earnings, up double digits after hours on triple-digit revenue growth and a CEO saying he sees no end to memory demand. The takeaway: follow the money down the CapEx receiver chain (Micron feeds Nvidia, then spends on Lam Research, KLA, ACM), but recognize semis are crowded and over-positioned, so Micron is a hold rather than a fresh buy. From there the episode moves into the themes worth owning now: the lower-end consumer through names like Synchrony, Bread, and Enova, travel and leisure as a boomer play, and health care and biotech shifting from out-of-favor to momentum. The back half is a walk through new mean-reversion research and a statistic called net breadth, and why peak breakdowns are historically the most bullish time to buy.

• (00:00) Micron's blowout earnings and "the show goes on"
• (02:00) Following the CapEx receiver chain: Nvidia, Lam, KLA, ACM
• (03:30) Why semis are crowded and Micron is a hold, not a buy
• (06:00) The lower-end consumer: Synchrony, Bread, Enova, Dave
• (08:00) Elective health financing and boomer spending power
• (09:30) Travel and leisure as a boomer theme, and owning Expedia
• (11:00) Health care's setup: long-term lows plus short-term momentum
• (12:30) Biotech as where animal spirits are hiding, and adjusting your view
• (14:00) Building strategies on momentum and mean reversion, skipping the middle
• (15:30) Mean reversion explained and the March 2023 bank example
• (17:30) Why buying the dip in small caps can be a trap
• (18:30) The new net breadth statistic and what it measures
• (20:30) Why max breakdown periods are the most bullish time to buy
• (22:30) Corrections, pullbacks, and reading sector breadth
• (24:30) How 2021 breadth objectively measured euphoria
• (26:00) The bicentennial rally setup and a possible midterm hangover

About the show: Non-Consensus Investing is Ram Ahluwalia's running commentary on markets, where he shares how he's actually positioning capital and talks through the ideas most investors are missing. Real-time analysis, specific names, and a bias toward what's overlooked rather than what's crowded.

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