Episode Details

Anpanman explores the intense volatility currently rocking the space sector, providing a clinical breakdown of the 49% peak-to-trough drawdown in AST SpaceMobile. The episode uncovers a critical market dynamic: how SpaceX insiders, VCs, and employees are likely using public space stocks as a technical hedge for their private holdings. As the SpaceX lockup expiration approaches in August, the resulting short interest in ASTS has reached all-time highs, creating a temporary but severe price suppression that members of the SpaceMob should understand.

Beyond the technicals, the episode dives into a fundamental transformation occurring at SpaceX. With new compute leasing deals for companies like Google and Anthropic totaling billions in monthly revenue, SpaceX is shifting its identity toward terrestrial data centers. Anpanman explains how this shift introduces significant basis risk for short sellers and reinforces why AST SpaceMobile remains the primary pure-play leader in the Direct to Device satellite market.

Crucial updates regarding AST SpaceMobile's international expansion are also highlighted. Following the Japanese regulatory approval of the 700 MHz spectrum for satellite use, the path is now clear for the J-LEO project. This public-private partnership aims to create a satellite-based emergency network for Japan, and AST SpaceMobile’s ability to connect to unmodified existing handsets gives it a decisive architectural advantage over Starlink. We also look at recent S-band spectrum approvals in Brazil and the upcoming Block 1 launch schedule.

00:00 Intro / Episode Start

00:26 Sector Drawdown & Pad Explosion

02:51 SpaceX Insider Hedging Explained

08:16 Connectivity vs Compute Revenue

12:29 AST SpaceMobile Short Interest

16:52 Basis Risk in the SpaceX Model

23:11 Japan 700 MHz Spectrum Win

25:30 The J-LEO Project & Rakuten JV

31:33 Brazil S-Band & Global Expansion

39:18 Launch Updates & Block 1 Progress