Episode Details

South Africa illuminates our future https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus South Africa, omicron situation and trends https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4EwCFqiJag Cases, + 26,976 Will increase for the next few weeks Positivity, 32.2% Deaths, + 54 Professor Shabir Madhi Gauteng Cases probably peaked More transmissibility Combined with more population prior immunity Three to four weeks, down from 8 weeks in previous waves Uncoupling of cases severe disease and death rate Delta 20,000 reported cases per day resulted in with 250 to 300 deaths Omicron Deaths 10 times less Omicron not less virulent But more community immunity Antibodies and T cells Omicron is antibody evasive T cytotoxic immunity is relatively well conserved This is what is causing the uncoupling T cells come from infection and vaccination Gauteng, serum survey 73% have been infected by the virus, this has led to a lot of T cell immunity Both will protect against severe disease https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room Data from the first three weeks of the Omicron-driven wave in South Africa Data, spanning clinical records, vaccination records, pathology test results 3.7 million people Omicron: A highly transmissible variant causing rapid community spread The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 Fuelling South Africa’s fourth wave Genomic Surveillance, Omicron over 90% of new infections Has displaced Delta variant The Omicron-driven fourth wave has a significantly steeper trajectory of new infections relative to prior waves. National data show an exponential increase in both new infections and test positivity rates Vaccine effectiveness during the current Omicron wave SAMRC, n= 211,000 positive tests 41% from adult members who had received two doses of the Pfizer 78,000 of these COVID-19 test results were attributed to Omicron infections To-date laboratory analysis has provided early insights into potential reduction in the effect of neutralising antibodies against the Omicron variant Two doses of the Pfizer Two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination provides significant protection against hospitalisation in individuals with Omicron variant infection 33% protection against infection, relative to the unvaccinated (down from 80% protection against infection) 70% protection against hospital admission (down from 93% with delta) Protection against hospital admission is maintained across all ages Protection against admission is consistent across a range of chronic illnesses Diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, cardiovascular diseases Reinfection risk Omicron reinfection risk significantly higher compared to prior variants Overall, the risk of re-infection (following prior infection) has increased over time Infected with Delta, a 40% relative risk of reinfection with Omicron Infected with Beta, a 60% relative risk of reinfection with Omicron Infected in first wave, a 73% risk of reinfection Risk of severe disease and hospitalisation significantly lower in Omicron infection compared to prior variants This lesser severity could, however, be confounded by the high seroprevalence levels of SARS CoV-2 antibodies in the general South African population Risk of hospital admission among adults diagnosed with omicron is 29% lower Hospitalised adults, lower propensity to be admitted to high-care and intensive-care units, relative to prior waves Preliminary observations on Omicron experience in children Under 18 have a 20% higher risk of admission when infected with Omicron Also increase in admissions for children under five Many are incidentally discovered in hospital Children were 51% less likely to test positive for COVID-19 relative to adults in the Omicron period Where children require admission for complications of COVID-19 Bronchiolitis Pneumonia Severe

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices