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The Fed's Growing Unease About Sticky Wage Inflation
Description
With the May CPI print showing a 4.2% annual increase, the Federal Reserve is confronting a persistent source of price pressure that doesn't appear in the headline number: wage inflation. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest Employment Cost Index data and the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker to explain why services inflation remains stubborn even as goods prices cool. They discuss how the Fed is weighing a tight labor market against the risk of an oil-driven recession, and what it means for the timing of rate cuts. Specific numbers include the 3.8% year-over-year wage growth and the 0.9% quarterly ECI increase. The episode also explores the compositional shift in inflation — from goods to services — and why the Fed cannot ignore wage stickiness even as energy costs spike due to geopolitical shocks.