Episode Details

CoBank says replacements rebuild in 2027 and 2028. Run the numbers — it gives back less than half of what got pulled out, and never clears the danger zone.

The Bullvine Podcast breaks down CoBank's new replacement-heifer forecast and finds the rebuild is real but thin: 360,200 head added over 2027 and 2028, just 3.75% of the herd, against 796,000 drained in the prior two years. Replacement values sit above $3,100, with top heifers clearing $3,400 to $4,400 at Minnesota and Wisconsin auctions this spring. Here's what it means for your 2027 breeding sheet.

What You'll Learn

• Why a 360,200-head rebuild barely dents a 909,400-head, 19% inventory slide since 2016
• How a snap-back in cull rates erases part of the recovery before it lands
• Why $251/cwt beef futures keep the replacement pipeline starved
• The one scenario CoBank didn't model — and why it's the fastest path to a rebuild
• The 30-day move to make while the cattle market is still calm

The beef check now drives margins more than the milk check on many farms — calf and cull sales jumped from 5% of the bottom line to 12 to 15%, some near 20%. As long as beef pays, dairies keep beef-breeding the bottom of the herd and replacements stay tight, especially in processing-growth zones like New York, Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Idaho, and the I-29 corridor. If you're budgeting replacements for 2027 and 2028, $2,600 to $2,800 is the optimistic case — not the number to bank on.

Full article and sources: https://www.thebullvine.com/farm-economics-management/dairy-heifer-rebuild-cobank-2027/

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