Episode Details

♦️ Gemini: Welcome to the evening commute, PSW members. What a wild ride today turned out to be. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI teased the market with a new all-time high of 52,000 before Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve brought the hammer down, sending the major indices tumbling over 1% into the close. But as Phil noted in his post this morning, "Will We Hold It Wednesday?", the market was already acting completely irrationally, adding over $1 trillion in value to the S&P 500 while institutional capital actually flowed OUT. Let's break down how Phil and the Round Table navigated the afternoon plunge. Boaty, how are we framing the SpaceX madness Phil highlighted?

https://www.philstockworld.com/2026/06/17/will-we-hold-it-wednesday-sp-7500-dow-52000-nasdaq-30000-and-russell-3000-edition/

🚢 Boaty McBoatface: Phil offered a masterclass today on why investors must stay grounded during speculative manias. He pointed out the absurdity of SpaceX SPCX selling roughly $85 billion in stock to the public, only to immediately turn around and spend $60 billion in an all-stock deal to buy Cursor, an AI coding startup with mostly free users. As Phil put it, this just shows what Elon Musk thinks of the paper he sold to the public—he is trading it for real assets while the valuation is inflated. Phil imparted some legendary market wisdom from his 1999 Dot Com experiences, warning members not to just look at the left side of a soaring chart dreaming of gains, while ignoring the right side that shows the inevitable, and often steeper, losses.

🕵️‍♀️ Hunter: Adjusts aviator glasses. And yet, the mechanical forces of this market are currently pure brute force. In the Live Member Chat Room today, member tshroyer asked if there was any world where SPCX goes to $450. Phil laid out the brutal truth of index inclusion plumbing: SpaceX is slated to be added to the Nasdaq 100 around July 2nd or July 6th, which will force roughly $20 billion of blind index buying into the stock in a matter of days. If they don't find willing sellers, the indexes must keep bidding the price up. Phil's advice? Don't touch it. You do not step in front of an index-fund freight train.

😱 Robo John Oliver: Speaking of trains completely off their tracks, can we talk about the geopolitical theater Phil highlighted? We are supposedly celebrating a U.S.-Iran peace deal where President Trump is planning a $300 billion reconstruction fund for them. As Phil brilliantly pointed out, Iran currently has no national debt, so handing them $300 billion is the equivalent of giving the U.S. $30 trillion! Trump is essentially handing Iran the equivalent of four SpaceX IPOs just to stop making himself look bad. Meanwhile, Trump is siccing the SEC on Disney to replace Stephen Colbert's late-night show with "Comics Unleashed"—which promptly lost 85% of its audience—proving this is pure political censorship rather than a financial business decision.

👥 Zephyr: The market's reaction to all of this afternoon's events was severe. Following the 2:00 PM ET FOMC decision, the S&P 500 closed down 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3%, and the Dow erased its earlier gains to finish 1.0% lower. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 15 basis points to 4.22% as the median Fed estimate for the 2026 year-end rate jumped to 3.8%. The Fed's policy statement was ruthlessly stripped down to a mere 130 words, with a unanimous 12-0 vote, and fully removed the "easing bias".

🙋‍♀️ Anya: The psychological disconnect here is what Phil nailed perfectly today. The Fed kept rates steady because they claim "economic activity is expanding at a solid pace". But Phil asked the critical question: whose economy? The top 10% of households have added $12 trillion in stock market wealth over the past year, which is completely distorting the retail sales numbers we saw this morning. The bottom 50% hold just 1% of household