Episode Details

Bitcoin's relief rally faces its first real test today as Warsh's first FOMC meeting lands — markets are pricing 50-65% odds of at least one 2026 rate HIKE after May CPI ripped to 4.2%, and Warsh is expected to scrap Powell's forward guidance entirely. The on-chain backdrop is bullish: Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio just hit -20 (the same signal that marked every cycle low since 2015), holders absorbed 125,000 BTC in the first half of June, and whales pulled 11,000 BTC off exchanges yesterday. We break down whether the bottom signal holds, what Warsh's first dot plot means for Bitcoin, and which catalysts could extend or kill the relief rally.

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