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Warm-Up
- Let's Make a Deal!
- News Dominated by ... SpaceX
- This week - Fed rate Decision
- Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)
Markets
- Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again
- IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roof
DEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years.
Market Valuations
- S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5
- 10-yr average = 19–20x
- Long-term average 18-19
- Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth.
- NASDAQ 100 forward P/E = 23-24
- 1-yr average ~23x
- 20-yr average ~20–21x
- Not screaming expensive on a forward basis
- - NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40
NEW Playbook
- But the Rumor and Buy the News
- used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News
- This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow....
- Monday = Deal, Friday = signing
On that note
- What is the deal anyway?
- Seems that we (USA) moving out our navy before the final
- Straights of Hormuz opening -??
- Has anyone seen the text?
- We are no better than we were before all this started...
Headline Nonsense
- Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k)
- Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums
- This is not a ticking time bomb. This is just reality when you have a lot saved and need to start withdrawals
- HOWEVER - there are ways around this and we have helped clients with this.
- - Listeners - if you have a 401k and think that you will be paying too much later on - we can take a look a
