Episode Details

Under reporting of deaths, 19 months into the pandemic https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Total deaths, 5,018,949 Total cases, 247,883,004 Total vaccine doses, 7,129,732,439 World Health Organization https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality Based on the excess mortality estimates produced for 2020 we are likely facing a significant undercount of total deaths directly and indirectly attributed to COVID-19 Many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems Percentage of registered deaths https://www.who.int/data/data-collection-tools/score/dashboard#/ 98% in the European 10% in the African region Comparisons difficult Excess mortality The difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis, compared to those expected under normal conditions Therefore, includes direct and indirect impact WHO, 2020 data Official, 1,813,100 Lower bound, 3 million Region of the Americas in 2020 Excess mortality estimates range from 1.34 to 1.46 million 60% more than reported European Region in 2020 Excess mortality estimates range from 1.11 to 1.21 million 50% more than reported https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates Excess death calculations Actual worldwide toll, 16.8 million excess deaths 95% probability, 10.3 million to 19.5 million Official versus actual deaths (Economist) US, deaths = 745,274 US, deaths = 860,000 to 1 million China, deaths = 4,600 China, deaths = 150,000 to 1,700,000 India, deaths = 458,000 India, deaths = 1.2 million to 7.2 million Russia, deaths = 236,462 Russia, deaths = 870,000 to 910,000 Indonesia, deaths = 143,457 Indonesia, deaths = 300,000 to 1.2 million Pakistan, deaths = 28,477 Pakistan, deaths = 300,000 to 910,000 Bangladesh, deaths = 27,873 Bangladesh, deaths = 200,000 to 720,000 Turkey, deaths = 71,052 Turkey, deaths = 130,000 to 420,000 Mexico, deaths = 288,464 Mexico, deaths = 560,000 to 600,000 Brazil, deaths = 608,071 Brazil, deaths = 660,000 to 740,000 Factors Death tolls are heavily influenced by the age structure of a country’s population Rely on the assumption that officially published excess-mortality numbers are accurate Covid-19 disruption, some governments may have changed how they compile data Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend Total deaths are the estimated number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, including unreported deaths. Reported and unreported deaths, 11.9 million

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