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How Falling Birth Rates Reshape the Pharmaceutical Industry
Description
In this episode of The Demographics Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how declining birth rates and aging populations are reshaping the pharmaceutical industry. They focus on the shift from pediatric-focused drug development to treatments for age-related diseases, using the example of GLP-1 receptor agonists like Ozempic and Mounjaro—originally diabetes drugs now being studied for Alzheimer's and heart failure. Lucas explains the economics: the number of children under five is projected to drop 10% by 2050, while the over-65 population will grow by 60%, pushing pharma R&D toward chronic conditions like cancer, dementia, and metabolic disease. Luna highlights the regulatory and market implications, including the FDA's new guidance on pediatric studies and the rise of geroscience. The episode concludes with a look at the 'silver dividend' for pharma investors and the ethical questions of deprioritizing child health.