Episode Details
Back to Episodes
The Fed's Hidden Labor Market Indicator Nobody Talks About
Description
Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's quiet focus on the duration of unemployment, not just the headline jobless rate. With long-term unemployment surging to levels not seen since the 2010s, they unpack why this metric matters more than the monthly payrolls number. Using data from the latest JOLTS report and the upcoming May jobs report, they explain how the Fed uses the share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more to gauge labor market slack and future wage pressures. The episode explores why this indicator is often overlooked by markets, how it influences the Fed's thinking on rate cuts, and what it reveals about structural changes in the economy. A must-listen for anyone trying to make sense of the Fed's data-dependent approach.