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How Central Banks Use Forward Guidance as a Policy Tool
Season 1
Episode 28
Published 3 weeks, 2 days ago
Description
Episode 28 of Monetary Policy Explained with Fexingo examines forward guidance—central banks' strategy of communicating future policy intentions to shape market expectations. Lucas walks through the Bank of Canada's path-dependent guidance from 2009 and the Federal Reserve's 2013 threshold-based approach on unemployment. Luna brings a 2020 RBNZ yield-targeting example. They discuss how forward guidance loses credibility when conditions shift, and the risk of 'guidance traps' where markets over-anchor. Specific data: the Fed's 6.5 percent unemployment threshold for rate hikes, the RBNZ's 0.25 percent one-year yield target. No prior episode covered this.