Episode Details
Back to EpisodesDCI Stock: HOLD Call - Record Quarter But Priced For Perfection Q4 FY2026
Published 4 weeks ago
Description
Donaldson Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE)
- CURRENT @ $84.56 -> HOLD
- BUY below $75.00 with $65.00 stop
- AVOID above $105.00
TRIGGER: A pullback toward $75 with Life Sciences organic growth confirmed above ten percent would be a BUY entry
WINDOW: 12-18 months — Life Sciences mix needs to reach thirteen to fifteen percent to drive multiple re-rating
WALL STREET CONSENSUS
- Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 5 Buy / 6 Hold / 3 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> HOLD
- Median 12-month PT: $96.00 (range $91 - $123)
THESIS
Donaldson crossed a billion dollars in quarterly revenue for the first time with seven percent organic growth, reaffirmed guidance, and showed Life Sciences inflecting to double digits — a genuine milestone print.
Bull lever: Life Sciences posted eleven percent organic growth this quarter; if that segment sustains double-digit growth and reaches fifteen percent of total revenue, the multiple has room to expand from twenty to twenty-five times earnings.
Key risk: Mobile Solutions is fifty-seven percent of revenue and tied to global truck and off-road equipment cycles; FX headwinds are real at two hundred basis points, and gross margins are drifting below historical peaks.
KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026
- Revenue: $1.00B (+6.5% YoY) - a fiscal-year record
- Non-GAAP EPS: $1.02 (vs $1.00 est, +2.0% beat)
- Operating margin: 15.5% - an 8-quarter high
- Gross margin: 33.3%
- Free cash flow: $900M (+$260M YoY); net cash $1.1B
- Hybrid Cloud +11% YoY; Public Cloud +28% YoY
- FY2027 guide: ~$7.05-7.25B revenue / $8.05-8.35 non-GAAP EPS
DISCLAIMER
This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in DCI.
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