Episode Details

Credo Technology Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $226.10 - BUY - BUY below $220.00 with $185.00 stop - AVOID above $280.00 TRIGGER: Q1 FY27 print confirming $475M guide AND Microsoft AEC renewal / second hyperscaler expansion WINDOW: 12-18 months -- FY27 hyperscaler AEC expansion plus customer-concentration de-risking TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/CRDO WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 11 Buy / 2 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - Buy - Median 12-month price target: $235.00 (range $170 - $260) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS Credo Technology is the pure-play AI data-center connectivity franchise. AEC cables solve the 400G/800G reach problem better than optical at cost; hyperscalers are standardizing on Credo. Bull lever: FY26 revenue $1.34B tripled FY25 $437M; Q4 gross margin 68.2% best-in-class among connectivity semis; net cash $1.4B; Q1 FY27 guide $475M implies continued 35%+ YoY growth. Key risk: Microsoft disclosed as 50% revenue customer -- loss or slowdown would compress revenue 50%+; AEC commoditization risk from NVDA ConnectX and Broadcom optical push; stock +278% YTD leaves no room for misses. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A (CEO Bill Brennan delivered FY26 triple vs prior year; AEC technology bet validated; nine consecutive quarterly beats; balance sheet pristine with $1.4B net cash) - Earnings quality grade: A- (Gross margin 68.2% premium; GAAP vs non-GAAP gap modest; positive FCF every quarter since Q3 FY25; net cash $1.4B; zero meaningful long-term debt) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:13 S0b_Year 0:49 The Print 1:37 S1b_BeatDecomp 2:08 The Trend 3:07 The Segments 4:06 The FCF Bridge 5:02 S4b_MarginQual 5:38 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 6:28 S5b_Catalyst 7:07 Peer Dot-Plot 7:44 S6b_Valuation 8:26 Management & Earnings Quality 9:26 S8a_Call 10:13 S8b_Call 11:06 Disclosure KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $0.44B (YoY +157.0%, beat est by +5.3%) - EPS: $0.88 (vs $0.77 est, beat +14.3%) - Operating margin: 35.7% - Free cash flow: $0.14B (31.6% margin) NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Prior call: "The AEC attachment rate at hyperscalers is ahead of our expectations. We see continued strong demand signals for AI data center connectivity through calendar 2026." - This call: "Fiscal 2026 was a transformational year. We grew revenue over 200% year-over-year and demonstrated that Credo's AEC technology is becoming the standard connectivity solution in the world's largest AI data centers." - Tone shift: Consistent beat on AEC hyperscaler volumes; Microsoft 50% customer confirmed; gross margin 68.2% best-in-class; net cash $1.4B fortress balance sheet DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Credo Technology Q4 FY2026 press release + earnings call DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in CRDO. Do your own research before any investment decision. #CRDO #CredoTechnology #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha