Episode Details
Back to Episodes
What the Yield Curve Inversion Tells Us Now
Season 1
Episode 7
Published 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Description
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. Lucas and Luna dig into what this inverted curve actually means for the economy in May 2026, with the Fed holding at 3.64 percent and inflation still sticky. They break down the gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury, now about 30 basis points, and why this indicator hasn't triggered a recession yet. The episode looks at how Kevin Warsh's Fed is navigating a bond market that keeps the curve flat, and what it might take for a re-steepening. Specific numbers include the 2-year yield at 3.59 percent, the 10-year at 4.56 percent, and the fed funds rate at 3.64 percent.