Episode Details

Consumer sentiment just hit a record low for the second month in a row. Normally, that would put the Fed under pressure to cut rates. But with core CPI still climbing and the labor market tight, the Fed Funds rate sits at 3.64 percent with no move in sight. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is looking past the sentiment numbers — and what would actually force Chair Kevin Warsh to act. They walk through the divergence between the University of Michigan survey and hard spending data, the role of the Iran war premium in inflation expectations, and why the ten-year yield is actually down 22 basis points this week despite the gloom. A concrete look at how central bankers read the economy differently from consumers.

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