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Why the Fed Is Watching Energy Inflation Closely
Description
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has held rates at 3.64% for months, but a new headache is emerging: energy inflation. While core PCE landed at 3.3% as expected, persistent fuel and utility costs are complicating the Fed's path. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Thursday that energy inflation has been 'more persistent than expected.' In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why energy prices are so sticky, how they feed into broader inflation expectations, and why the ten-year Treasury yield is still stuck below 5% despite the heat. They also examine the labor market resilience cited by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and what it means for rate cuts. Plus: the yield curve remains inverted and small caps are outperforming — what those signals say about the economy. A data-driven conversation without the noise.