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Why the Ten-Year Yield Is Stuck Below Five Percent
Season 1
Episode 20
Published 1 month, 1 week ago
Description
The ten-year Treasury yield is hovering at 4.45 percent despite sticky core inflation at 3.3 percent, a flat fed funds rate at 3.64, and rising energy costs from the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna unpack the structural forces pinning down long-term rates: foreign central bank demand, pension fund duration hedging, and the market's belief that the Fed won't hike further. They also explore what would finally break the ten-year above five percent and why the bond market's patience isn't infinite. Along the way, a brief note on listener support keeping the show ad-free.