Episode Details
Back to Episodes“How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced during the intelligence explosion? A plan.” by Tom Davidson
Description
This is an edited version of a LW shortform.
Superintelligence will likely be developed by US companies; run on US data centres; and be under the jurisdiction of the US government. This will massively boost US military power and make the US economically dominant (e.g. US producing 99% of world GDP). By default, middle powers will be left in the dust.
How can middle powers avoid this fate? It's tough, but here's the best plan I could think of. (I’m particularly thinking about liberal democracies with influence over AI like UK, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.)
On a very high level: middle powers should leverage the fact that the US needs them to beat China. It's genuinely unclear which country will develop superintelligence first, and which would win in a subsequent industrial explosion. Middle powers should help the US, and make sure they are rewarded with continued access to frontier AI and new technologies (including military tech).
That final bolded part is hard. What can the UK realistically do if the US denies it access to frontier AI? The middle powers need a credible alternative to being supplicants of the US. The only alternative that makes sense to me [...]
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Outline:
(02:36) Stage 1: Maintain as much economic and military leverage as possible during the intelligence explosion
(07:52) Stage 2: Ensure that, when superintelligence is developed, it refuses to crush middle powers
(11:51) Is it good to avoid middle powers getting trounced?
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First published:
May 28th, 2026
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.