Episode Details

Burlington Stores Q1 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $301.40 -> HOLD - BUY below $270.00 with $235.00 stop - AVOID above $345.00 TRIGGER: A pullback under $270 (roughly 22x forward) OR a Q2 comp print above the +1-3% guide that confirms the +6% Q1 was not a one-off WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2026 earnings (November 2026) WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 8 Strong Buy / 12 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> BUY - Median 12-month PT: $350.00 (range $310 - $430) THESIS Burlington is a best-in-class off-price retailer compounding earnings at a double-digit rate with a multi-year runway to roughly 2,000 stores. Bull lever: Comp store sales of plus 6 percent, a record 44.1 percent gross margin, and a raised full-year EPS guide to $11.45 to $11.80 show the merchandising and supply-chain model firing on all cylinders. Key risk: At 26 times forward earnings near the 52-week high, the stock is priced for perfection; the conservative plus 2 to 4 percent full-year comp guide leaves room for disappointment if the consumer softens. KEY METRICS - Q1 FY2026 - Net sales: $2.85B (+14% YoY) - Comparable store sales: +6% - Adjusted EPS: $2.10 (vs $1.78 est, +18% beat); +26% YoY - Gross margin: 44.1% (+30 bps) - FY26 guide RAISED: sales +9-11%, comp +2-4%, adj EPS $11.45-$11.80 - Stock reaction: fell 7.5% on the print despite the beat-and-raise DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in BURL. #BURL #Burlington #offprice #retail #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #TJX #ROST