Episode Details

Costco Wholesale Q3 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $1000.69 -> HOLD - BUY below $870.00 with $820.00 stop - AVOID above $1100.00 TRIGGER: A membership fee increase announcement OR the stock derating toward 40x forward earnings WINDOW: 12-18 months - multiple compression risk versus membership-fee catalyst WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 11 Strong Buy / 12 Buy / 13 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> BUY - Median 12-month PT: $1100.00 (range $769 - $1275) THESIS Costco is a best-in-class warehouse retailer growing revenue at 10 percent with a membership renewal rate above 89 percent that funds a structurally low-margin merchandise model. Bull lever: Comparable sales up 6.7 percent and membership fee income up double digits show the flywheel intact; a future membership fee increase would drop almost entirely to profit. Key risk: At 51 times forward earnings the stock prices in flawless execution; this quarter's rare 6-cent EPS miss is exactly the kind of stumble a premium multiple punishes. KEY METRICS - Q3 FY2026 - Revenue: $69.76B (+10.4% YoY) - EPS: $4.92 (vs $4.98 est, -1.2% vs Street) - Comparable sales: +6.7% (ex gas & FX +5.8%) - Membership renewal: 89%+ global; membership fee income ~$1.37B (+10% YoY) - Operating margin: 3.9%; Forward P/E ~51x DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in COST. #COST #Costco #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #retail #dividends