Episode Details
Back to EpisodesNTAP Stock: HOLD Call - Record Quarter But Priced For Perfection Q4 FY2026
Published 1 month ago
Description
NetApp Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE)
- CURRENT @ $142.40 -> HOLD
- BUY below $115.00 with $95.00 stop
- AVOID above $165.00
TRIGGER: A pullback to $115 with FY2027 guide intact would turn this into a BUY
WINDOW: 6-12 months - valuation needs the earnings to grow into the multiple
WALL STREET CONSENSUS
- Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 26 Buy / 36 Hold / 9 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> HOLD
- Median 12-month PT: $108.50 (range $89 - $128)
THESIS
NetApp is a high quality, net cash storage franchise that just delivered a record quarter with operating margin at an eight quarter high, but the stock has run above the entire Wall Street target range.
Bull lever: Operating margin expanded to twenty seven and a half percent with record free cash flow of nine hundred million and a net cash balance sheet funding steady buybacks.
Key risk: The stock trades above every published price target on mid single digit growth, and the FY2027 guide is in line rather than a raise, so the valuation needs earnings to catch up.
KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026
- Revenue: $1.95B (+12.5% YoY) - a fiscal-year record
- Non-GAAP EPS: $2.43 (vs $2.27 est, +7.0% beat)
- Operating margin: 27.5% - an 8-quarter high
- Gross margin: 70.1%
- Free cash flow: $900M (+$260M YoY); net cash $1.1B
- Hybrid Cloud +11% YoY; Public Cloud +28% YoY
- FY2027 guide: ~$7.05-7.25B revenue / $8.05-8.35 non-GAAP EPS
DISCLAIMER
This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in NTAP.
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