Episode Details

Viasat Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $86.69 -> HOLD - BUY below $65.00 with $50.00 stop - AVOID above $110.00 TRIGGER: Adj EBITDA inflects higher AND leverage falls below 3.0x on operating cash, not asset sales WINDOW: 12-18 months - deleveraging plus ViaSat-3 F2/F3 service ramp WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 8 Buy / 8 Hold / 4 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> HOLD - Median 12-month PT: $87.00 (range $43 - $100) THESIS Viasat is a deleveraging turnaround with record backlog, but the top line is flat and the GAAP profit leaned on a one-time asset sale rather than operating earnings. Bull lever: Leverage cut to three point one times after seven hundred forty three million of debt paydown, with ViaSat-3 F2 and F3 coming into service to lift the satellite-broadband engine. Key risk: Four point eight billion of net debt, flat revenue, and a profit that depended on the Navarino gain leave little room for execution slips while the stock sits at its price target. KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $1.17B (+2.1% YoY) - roughly flat - GAAP net income: $59M (a $305M swing from a $246M year-ago loss) - Implied diluted EPS: ~$0.45 - Adjusted EBITDA: $370M (down 1% YoY) - Communication Services: -2% YoY (69% of revenue) - Defense & Advanced Tech: +12% YoY (31% of revenue) - Record backlog: $4.1B (+15% YoY); $743M of debt paid down in FY2026 - Net debt $4.8B at 3.1x leverage (target below 3.0x) - FY2027 guide: mid-single-digit revenue growth, Adj EBITDA flat to up slightly, FCF ~$180M - NOTE: the GAAP profit was aided by a one-time gain on the Navarino sale (~$203M proceeds) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in VSAT. #VSAT #Viasat #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #satellite #broadband #deleveraging #ViaSat3