Episode Details

Nutanix Q3 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $46.57 -> BUY - BUY below $45.00 with $39.00 stop - AVOID above $62.00 TRIGGER: Q4 FY26 print confirming FY27 guide accelerates with VMware displacement run-rate visible WINDOW: 12-18 months through the Broadcom VMware renewal cliff WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 8 Strong Buy / 14 Buy / 6 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> Buy - Median 12-month PT: $62.00 (range $45 - $95) THESIS Nutanix is the prime VMware-displacement winner; subscription model 95 percent of revenue; FY26 guide raised on enterprise migration momentum. Bull lever: Q3 revenue 703 million beat by 17 million; FCF margin 28 percent; FY26 guide raised to 2.84 billion at midpoint; VMware displacement narrative finally showing up in the printed numbers. Key risk: Subscription model with sticky enterprise base limits upside surprise. SBC at 11.8 percent of revenue dilutes share count. Op margin 9.8 percent is below peer median 15 percent. KEY METRICS - Q3 FY2026 - Revenue: $0.70B (+10.0% YoY) - EPS: $0.47 (vs $0.35 est, +34.3% beat) - Operating margin: 9.8% - Q4 FY26 guide: $742M revenue / $0.49 EPS midpoint (vs $727M Street) - FCF: $197M = 28% margin - Subscription revenue: 95% of total DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in NTNX. #NTNX #Nutanix #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #VMware #SaaS