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Softer CPI, RBNZ itching to hike, hope drives oil lower
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Thursday 28th May 2026
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A softer-than-expected Australian headline inflation print sent the Aussie dollar sliding half a percent to 71.4 US cents. NAB’s Gavin Friend cautions that while the headline cooling is welcome, the trimmed mean core rate remains stubbornly high, meaning the RBA cannot yet afford to take its foot off the brake. Meanwhile the RBNZ held rates steady yesterday but strongly signalled that it is itching for another imminent interest rate hike. All eyes now look ahead to the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE deflator—which will influence the broader transatlantic interest rate path. And oil is lower, but will it last? The oil markets want to believe, says Gavin.
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