Episode Details

NBA front office veteran Jeremias Engelmann (5x5, Silver Bulletin, xRAPM.com) and host Thomas Emerick trigger the alternate timeline. We head to Auburn Hills, Michigan on Friday November 19th, 2004 — a nationally televised regular season game between two of the decade's premier defensive juggernauts — and ask what happens to the NBA's balance of power if a cup of diet coke lands a few feet short.

Jeremias worked in the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns front offices, created ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM) metric, and publishes great work on Substack for Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and Royce Webb's 5x5. He also maintains xRAPM.com for current and historical data on his advanced player impact metric that is equivalent to what was formerly ESPN's Real Plus-Minus.

The Pacers enter at 6-2, Ron Artest is shooting a career-best from three and playing defense some thought was more valuable than reigning DPOY Ben Wallace. Reggie Miller's in a suit, nursing a broken hand, watching this young core that has rallied around his final championship window. Five months earlier, Tayshaun Prince's block on Miller ended Indiana's season in the 2004 Eastern Conference Finals. Now Artest drops 17 in the first quarter at the Palace of Auburn Hills and the Pacers go up 16 at the half. Jamaal Tinsley adds 8 steals and 8 assists. Then Ben Wallace gets fouled, Stephen Jackson and Rip Hamilton get chippy, and the cup lands. Ron Artest charges into the stands, and Reggie Miller never gets his ring.

But what if it doesn't happen? Jeremias pilots the Indiana Pacers franchise through its mulligan on the decade, from 2005 through 2010 — with Artest guarding Dwyane Wade and LeBron James deep into May and June, year after year. And does he end up guarding Kobe Bryant in the 2009 or 2010 NBA Finals?

More from Jeremias Engelmann:

• NBA Draft Combine: What Matters and What Doesn’t — According to My Draft Model (5x5)
• How to adjust college stats — featuring Caleb Wilson vs. Cameron Boozer (5x5)
• NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings III (Silver Bulletin)

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More episode threads: 

• Did the 2004 ECF feel like a passing of the baton in terms of the league's premier rivalry and the era's predominant style of play?
• Ron Artest shooting career-best from three early in '04-'05 — how bullish were these signals for him as a centerpiece on a contender?
• Do the Pacers secure the 1-seed for the second straight year and take down Detroit in the alt-timeline postseason?
• Spurs edge Pistons in 7 in 2005. Do the Pacers match up well enough to beat San Antonio in the Finals?
• Artest guarding Dwyane Wade — could Indiana beat that Miami team and then take down Dirk Nowitzki and Dallas in the 2006 NBA Finals?
• LeBron bulldozed Detroit in the 2007 ECF. How much of a difference does Ron Artest make against LeBron in that series? Can Jermaine O'Neal bother Duncan enough in the '05 Finals and Dirk in the '06 Finals?