Episode Details

Following my recent pieces on Namibia, several readers got in touch asking pretty much the same question: Fine. But how do you actually invest there?

Frontier markets are notoriously difficult to access. Interesting companies are privately owned, illiquid, unlisted or buried on obscure exchanges your broker has never heard of, or they carry their own small company risk that does not reflect the broader themes of the country.

To try and answer the question properly, I spoke to economist Rowland Brown, founder of Cirrus Capital, the country’s largest stockbroker, to discuss the best ways to invest in Namibia and where he sees the biggest opportunities.

The full interview follows, but here are 7 things that stood out to me.

1. Namibia’s growth could accelerate dramatically

Namibia has averaged around 4.5% annual growth since independence in 1990. But Brown thinks the next decade could look very different. The reason is oil.

Offshore discoveries by majors such as Shell plc and TotalEnergies could transform the country’s fiscal position. Brown estimates that production of 450,000 barrels per day by 2030 could increase government revenues by roughly 60%, which is quite frankly an astonishing number.

Namibia today has a population of roughly 3 million people. It is rich in uranium, diamonds, copper, gold and fisheries. Add large-scale oil production and the country starts to look strategically very important.

2. The banks are surprisingly attractive

One thing I had not appreciated before speaking to Brown was how profitable Namibian banks are. According to him, the major listed banks are producing returns on equity of roughly 20-30%, while trading on earnings multiples of only four to five times.

The problem is that these banks are listed only on the Namibian Stock Exchange, meaning overseas investors generally need a local broker to access them.

The main players include Standard Bank Namibia, First National Bank Namibia and Capricorn Group

Brown is particularly positive on Standard Bank Namibia because of its positioning for both the uranium and oil industries. Chinese involvement in Namibian uranium mining has also strengthened relationships and financing channels there.

3. But there is also a way to buy Namibian government debt

This was another thing I did not know. There is an exchange traded Namibian government bond index called STXNAM, tradable in Johannesburg.

Namibian government debt currently yields around 12%, while inflation is around 3%, according to Brown.

That obviously comes with frontier-market risk, but Namibia’s debt position is arguably stronger than many developed countries. Roughly 80% of the debt is domestically owned, largely by pension funds and banks.

Unlike other countries I could mention, Namibia has not yet completely financialised itself into oblivion. Ahem.

If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.

4. Uranium remain