Episode Details

Elbit Systems Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $852.41 - BUY - BUY below $820.00 with $750.00 stop - AVOID above $1050.00 TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of backlog above 25 billion OR full-year guide raised above 13 percent revenue growth WINDOW: Through Q3 2026 earnings (mid-November 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/ESLT WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 2 Strong Buy / 3 Buy / 2 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $850.00 (range $650 - $1100) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: MORE BULLISH THESIS Elbit Systems is a defense pure-play with 25 billion of backlog growing operating leverage through a multi-year European and Middle East rearmament wave. Bull lever: Backlog at record levels with NATO members raising defense spending toward 3 percent of GDP. Operating margin expansion runway from 9.2 percent to a structural 11 percent provides 20 percent EPS growth tailwind through 2027. Key risk: Multiple compression risk: 55x P/E vs 20x peer median. A sustained ceasefire or pace-of-orders deceleration could re-rate the stock 30 percent lower even with EPS growth intact. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (Machlis team has delivered consistent backlog growth and margin expansion through a wartime operating environment; capital allocation conservative but proven) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (Earnings backed by genuine cash flow trajectory; minimal accruals; main caveat is working-capital absorption from backlog conversion timing.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:09 The Print + Backlog Build 1:24 The Trend + Margin Trajectory 2:49 The Segments 4:00 The FCF Bridge + Balance Sheet 5:11 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 6:13 Peer Dot-Plot 7:18 Management & Earnings Quality 8:45 The Call - Verdict (price-aware + consensus) 9:54 The Call - Supporting Evidence KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue: $2.19B (+15.5% YoY, beat estimate by 2.1%) - Adjusted EPS: $3.34 (vs $2.98 est, +12.1% beat, +30.0% YoY) - Operating margin: 9.2% (+130 bps YoY) - Backlog: $25.1B record (+11% YoY) - Net debt: $0.33B (down 75% from $1.27B a year ago) - Free cash flow: $73M (3.3% margin) GUIDANCE - RAISED - FY26 sales growth: 10.0% to 13.0% - FY26 op margin: 9.0% to 10.0% - FY26 EPS growth: 18.0% to 25.0% NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q4 2025 call (Mar): "backlog continues to provide visibility into multi-year revenue growth" - Q1 2026 call (May): "backlog reached record levels, providing visibility for continued growth in 2026 and beyond" - Tone shift: steady-state confidence - active leaning-in DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Elbit Systems Q1 2026 Press Release (2026-05-26) - Q1 2026 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in ESLT. Do your own research before any investment decision. #ESLT #ElbitSystems #defensestocks #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha