Episode Details

AutoZone Q3 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $3100.11 - HOLD - BUY below $3000.00 with $2750.00 stop - AVOID above $3500.00 TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of stable-or-expanding op margin (=19%) AND no further tariff-driven cost-of-goods drag WINDOW: Through Q1 FY27 earnings (mid-December 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/AZO WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 4 Strong Buy / 14 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $4312.50 (range $3600 - $4800) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: BELOW THESIS AutoZone is the cleanest auto-parts compounder -- 19% op margins, ~$1.6B annual FCF entirely returned via buybacks, and a structurally widening Commercial share that creates a long-duration growth ramp. Bull lever: If management successfully passes tariff costs through via mid-single-digit price actions and the Commercial mix continues to widen, op margins re-stabilize at 19-20% and the buyback at the lower stock price compounds book per share faster. Key risk: Consumer pushback on pricing or competitive intensification from ORLY/AAP could force AZO to absorb tariff cost, breaking the 19% margin floor and resetting the multiple. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (Daniele inherited a 25-year compounder machine and has executed it cleanly; capital allocation discipline (buyback over dividend) remains best-in-class in retail.) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (EPS beat was real and not driven by adjustments; FCF generation remains strong; the only concern is margin trend.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:11 S0b_Year 0:37 The Print 1:23 S1b_BeatDecomp 1:59 The Trend 3:01 The Segments 3:45 The FCF Bridge 4:53 S4b_MarginQual 5:14 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 5:58 S5b_Catalyst 6:20 Peer Dot-Plot 7:15 S6b_Valuation 7:38 Management & Earnings Quality 8:31 S8a_Call 8:58 S8b_Call KEY METRICS - Q3 FY2026 - Revenue: $4.84B (+8.4% YoY, missed estimate by 0.42%) - Diluted EPS: $38.07 (vs $36.22 est, +5.1% beat; +7.7% YoY) - Domestic same-store sales: ~+5.0% (Commercial +9.5% / DIY +2.5%) - Gross margin: 52.15% (-57 bps YoY) - Operating margin: 19.08% (-32 bps YoY) - Net income: $641M (+5.4% YoY) - Diluted share count: down 2.1% YoY (buyback compounder running) GUIDANCE - NO FORMAL GUIDE (AutoZone 20-year policy) - Consensus FY26 EPS: $159.50 (~+5% YoY) - Consensus Q4 FY26 (Aug quarter): $55.27 EPS on $6.76B revenue - Mgmt signaled mid-single-digit price increases coming for tariff offset NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q2 FY26 call (Mar): "consumer remains resilient and we are pricing-disciplined" - Q3 FY26 call (May): "modest cost inflation from imported parts; will take mid-single-digit price actions" - Tone shift: confident-and-disciplined - acknowledging tariff cost pressure DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - AutoZone Q3 FY2026 Press Release (2026-05-26) - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in AZO. Do your own research before any investment decision. #AZO #AutoZone #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha