Episode Details

Semtech Q1 FY2027 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. Record quarter, raised guide, +5.3% AH. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $164.46 - BUY - BUY below $160.00 with $138.00 stop - AVOID above $200.00 TRIGGER: Q2 FY27 print confirming $328M+ guide; FiberEdge 1.6T design-win disclosures WINDOW: 12-18 months - multi-quarter data-center ramp underway TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/SMTC WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 6 Strong Buy / 5 Buy / 2 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - Buy - Median 12-month price target: $185.00 (range $145 - $215) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS Semtech is a mid-cap analog franchise with under-appreciated data-center optionality through Signal Integrity FiberEdge and CopperEdge 1.6T products. Bull lever: Q2 guide of $328M vs Street $300M signals data-center demand is real; Signal Integrity gross margin 62.7% drives mix-shift margin expansion. Key risk: Net debt $329M restricts strategic flexibility; IoT growth deceleration to 7.5% YoY shows cyclical exposure remains. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (New CEO Hong Hou delivered record quarter and raised guide eighteen months in) - Earnings quality grade: B (Non-GAAP gap $0.24 mostly amortization and stock-comp; cash conversion fair) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:10 Year In One Chart 0:35 The Print 1:25 Beat Decomposition 1:56 The Trend + Margin Trajectory 3:05 The Segments 3:57 FCF Bridge + Balance Sheet 5:01 Margin Quality 5:35 Guidance 6:27 Catalyst Calendar 6:58 Peer Dot-Plot 7:32 Valuation Triangle 8:03 Quality + Dilution 8:56 The Call - Verdict 9:29 The Call - Detail KEY METRICS - Q1 FY2027 - Revenue: $291.0M (+15.9% YoY, beat estimate by 2.8%) - Adjusted EPS: $0.51 (vs $0.45 est, +13.3% beat; +34% YoY) - Adjusted gross margin: 53.0% - Adjusted operating margin: 20.4% (+560 bps YoY) - Adjusted EBITDA: $66.4M (22.8% margin) - Free cash flow: $28.0M (9.6% margin) - Net debt: $328.7M (cash $163.3M, debt $492.0M) SEGMENTS - Signal Integrity: $102.0M (62.7% gross margin) - data-center optical chips, FiberEdge + CopperEdge 1.6T - Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless: $100.8M (58.7% gross margin) - IoT Systems & Connectivity: $88.3M (35.8% gross margin) - LoRa franchise GUIDANCE - RAISED ABOVE STREET - Q2 FY27 revenue: $323M to $333M (midpoint $328M, +9.1% above $301M Street) - Q2 FY27 adjusted EPS: $0.59 to $0.63 (midpoint $0.61 vs $0.51 Street) - Q2 adjusted gross margin: ~54.0% NARRATIVE DIFF - Prior call: Street modeled $0.45 EPS on $283M revenue; expected Q2 guide near $300M - This call: $0.51 EPS on $291M revenue; Q2 guide $328M (9.1% above Street) - Delta: Triple beat plus aggressive guide raise; data-center momentum confirmed DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Semtech 8-K filing 2026-05-26 + press release - Q1 FY27 earnings commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in SMTC. Do your own research before any investment decision. #SMTC #Semtech #earnings #investing #stocks #semiconductors #datacenter #ChargedAlpha