Episode Details

Wall Street still defines a “bear market” as a 20% decline, but does that rule still apply in today’s market environment? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down why traditional definitions of corrections and bear markets may be obsolete after 17 years of Fed intervention, massive liquidity injections, and historically elevated valuations. We also answer one of the biggest questions investors are asking right now: how do you balance staying invested while also remaining defensive? We discuss risk management, position sizing, portfolio hedging, and how investors can recognize when it may be time to become more cautious without abandoning long-term investment discipline. Lance & Jon also iscuss one of the biggest behavioral mistakes investors make during strong bull markets: allowing the “tax tail” to wag the investment dog. We examine strategies for trimming concentrated positions, managing capital gains, utilizing Donor Advised Funds, exploring option collars for risk management, and remembering that paying taxes usually means you made money in the first place. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 0:53 - Iran Talks & Oil Prices 3:11 - Markets over Bought & Over Extended 7:03 - 20% Market Decline - Reality 12:35 - Sneaky Sneezes & Story Time w Jon 13:30 - Market Declines & Investor Mistakes 15:17 - The Difference Between Losing Gains vs Principle 16:48 - Useless Predictions 20:31 - How We Manage Long Term Risks 22:32 - How Warren Buffett Invests (You're not him) 24:03 - Corrections Are Not Nothin' 26:04 - Where Does Gloom & Doom Come From? 27:24 - If Debt-to-GDP Was a Problem - What the Markets Know 31:00 - Don't Let the Tax Tail Wag the Gains Dog 34:36 - When the Fed Chair Changes... 36:55 - Bond Price Moves vs "Fixed"? 42:31 - The Only Way to Buy Bonds 44:56 - Never Ever Borrow Against Your 401k (again) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/PdNwnrviYnQ?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Corrections vs. Bear Markets: Why 20% Declines Are Obsolete" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/corrections-vs-bear-markets-why-20-declines-are-obsolete/ ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "Narrow Rally Risks," here: https://youtu.be/dO-rDPLZBa8 ------- Watch our previous show, "Parabolic Bubble Brewing - Tom Thornton Interview-2," https://youtube.com/live/s5pdp2zHltg ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "A SimpleVisor Tutorial," Thursday, June 4, 2025 at Noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/MwairsimgmnS --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #AIStocks #MarketBreadth #Investing #FederalReserve #StockMarket #BearMarket #FederalReserve #Investing #MarketCorrection