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It's Earnings, Stupid: How to Build an ETF Portfolio Around What Actually Matters

Episode 139 Published 2 days, 7 hours ago
Description

Global markets keep climbing despite geopolitical tension, shifting rate expectations, and nonstop headlines—but how should you actually build an ETF portfolio in this environment? According to Ryan Lewenza, it all comes back to one thing: earnings. Strong revenue growth, record profit margins, and resilient fundamentals are what continue to power equities higher, even as uncertainty lingers. In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Amber sits down with the Senior Portfolio Manager, Private Client Group from Turner Investments to break down how to construct a disciplined ETF portfolio around what actually drives returns—and why chasing narratives like AI without earnings support can be a mistake.

In the Mailbag, Ryan answers your ETF questions with a focus on real portfolio construction. For commodity exposure, he highlights the iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals ETF (XBM) and the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME). On energy hedging, he explains why trying to pick Brent vs. WTI is overthinking it, and instead suggests broad exposure. He’s not a fan of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), pointing to weak long-term performance, and prefers simple growth exposure through the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) or Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). For private market and IPO exposure, he points to Fidelity Global Innovators ETF (FINN), while defensive investors can look at BMO Low Volatility Canadian Equity ETF (ZLB). Income seekers, meanwhile, should consider the Invesco Canadian Dividend Index ETF (PDC), and for housing exposure, he mentions the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)—though timing depends heavily on interest rates.

In Pro Picks, Ryan lays out a clear ETF blueprint built around where he sees the next rotation. He highlights the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) as a core play on value stocks as leadership shifts away from growth. To capture the AI-driven power demand theme, he likes the BMO SPDR Utilities Select Sector Index ETF (ZXLU), calling utilities a “wimpy way to play AI” with both defensive and growth characteristics. And for international upside, he points to the Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (FLKR), driven by semiconductor exposure and still benefiting from the global AI buildout. The message is simple: build around earnings, stay diversified, and don’t overcomplicate what ultimately drives returns.


Timestamps
00:00 Trailer

02:05 Intro 
03:00 It’s earnings, earnings, earnings 
06:20 What could take the market down? Will rates tip it over? 
08:10 Will oil hit $150? 
09:40 But is this time different? What’s the new normal because of AI? 
11:20 What does Ryan’s portfolio look like? 
14:35 What is safety these days? 
16:20 Ryan expects a big rotation out of U.S. into Canada 
18:05 Hamilton ETFs: MIX 
20:10 ITM Mailbag:  Mining ETFs: XBM, XME

22:10 Thoughts on a Brent Oil ETF 
23:25 Cathie Wood’s ARK innovation ETF 

25:05 Passive vs. Active management 

27:10 Exposure to upcoming IPOs like SpaceX? FINN 
29:10 Low volatility ETF (ZLB) 

30:50 Income seeking ETF (PDC) 
32:30 U.S. housing & construction 

34:30 Ryan’s Pro Picks  & How to Choose the Best ETFS ( VTV, FLKR)


Sponsors

For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.


Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial.  Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information

The mailbag is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. For more information on the Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF visit:  https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/mix/ 

Links

https://inthemoneypod.com/ 

https://instagram.com/inthemoneypod

https://facebook.com/prof

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