Episode Details

Walmart Inc. Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $121.34 - same - BUY below $100.00 with $88.00 stop - AVOID above $140.00 TRIGGER: Watch for Q2 operating margin holding the 4 percent band and management quantifying the tariff cost offset - clean evidence on both would justify upgrading toward BUY. WINDOW: 12-18 months. TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/WMT WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 47 Buy / 15 Hold / 3 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $142.38 (range $108 - $165) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: Charged Alpha is more cautious than consensus - we see the valuation as full and rate the stock HOLD. THESIS Walmart is the best-run mass retailer on earth - growing revenue seven percent, gaining grocery share, and scaling high-margin advertising and membership - but at roughly 37 times forward earnings the stock already prices in years of flawless execution. Bull lever: If advertising and membership keep compounding faster than the core and tariff costs are passed through cleanly, operating margin breaks above 4.7 percent and EPS re-rates the stock toward the $165 high target. Key risk: Tariff-driven cost inflation forces price increases that dent traffic, or compresses operating margin below the long-run 4 percent band - at this multiple any margin disappointment triggers sharp de-rating, exactly what the seven percent drop previewed. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (Doug McMillon handed the CEO seat to John Furner in early 2026 after a deep internal succession; Furner ran Walmart U.S. and Sam's Club and inherits an elite operating bench. Capital allocation is disciplined with 52 straight years of dividend growth.) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (Earnings are clean - GAAP equals adjusted, stock comp is immaterial, and accruals are modest. The single quality flag is that Q1 free cash flow is seasonally negative; the trailing read is the honest one.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:28 The Print 1:22 The Trend 2:08 The Segments 2:51 The FCF Bridge 3:35 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:32 Peer Dot-Plot 5:17 Management & Earnings Quality 6:40 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 FY2027 - Revenue: $177,751M (+7.33% YoY, +1.05% vs est) - EPS GAAP: $0.67 (vs $0.58 est, +15.5% beat; +19.6% YoY) - Gross margin: 25.14% - Operating margin: 4.22% - FCF: -$1.9B Q1 (seasonal); TTM FCF ~$12.6B - U.S. comp sales: +4.5% - Fwd P/E: ~36.9x vs ~4% revenue growth SEGMENT HIGHLIGHTS - Walmart U.S. (largest): comps +4.5%, traffic positive - Walmart International: +9% YoY, Flipkart/Mexico/China - Sam's Club: +6.7% on membership and merchandise mix - Global eCommerce: up more than 20% GUIDANCE - FY27 net sales growth guided +3% to +4% - No hard Q2 EPS number; tariff cost pressure flagged DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Walmart Q1 FY2027 Earnings Release (2026-05-21) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in WMT. Do your own research before any investment decision. #WMT #Walmart #retail #tariffs #DiscountStores #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha