Episode Details

Ross Stores, Inc. Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $217.19 - same - BUY below $175.00 with $150.00 stop - AVOID above $250.00 TRIGGER: A re-rating to BUY requires either a multiple reset below twenty-four times forward earnings or evidence that comparable-store sales are durably accelerating above the low-single-digit guide. WINDOW: 12-18 months. TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/ROST WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 31 Buy / 12 Hold / 4 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $229.17 (range $175 - $262) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: Charged Alpha is one notch more cautious than the Street -- HOLD versus consensus Buy -- on valuation grounds. THESIS Ross is a best-in-class off-price operator gaining share as consumers trade down, with thirteen-percent operating margins, thirty-eight-percent ROE and a fortress balance sheet -- but the stock at thirty times earnings near a record high already reflects that quality. Bull lever: If comparable-store sales accelerate above the low-single-digit guide and tariff pressure eases, FY EPS pushes toward eight dollars and the buyback shrinks the share count, supporting a move above $250. Key risk: The off-price model depends on the lower-income consumer holding up; a consumer rollover or a tariff-driven margin squeeze would hit a stock that has no valuation cushion. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B+ (Disciplined off-price operator with decades of share gains, steady buybacks and a growing dividend; CEO James Conroy is relatively new to the seat, the one watch item.) - Earnings quality grade: A- (Clean earnings. Cash conversion is strong, there is no gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS, stock comp is immaterial and the balance sheet is unlevered.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:19 The Print 1:16 The Trend 2:03 The Segments 2:47 The FCF Bridge 3:34 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:36 Peer Dot-Plot 5:17 Management & Earnings Quality 6:40 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 FY2027 - Revenue: $6,010M (+20.57% YoY, +6.94% vs est) - EPS GAAP: $2.02 (vs $1.85 est, +9.2% beat; +37% YoY) - Gross margin: 20.84% - Operating margin: 13.38% - FCF: $627M (more than tripled YoY) - Systemwide comps: +4% all categories - EV/Sales: ~3.0x vs TJX ~2.6x SEGMENT HIGHLIGHTS - Ross Dress for Less (~90% of revenue): comps positive, traffic up - dd's DISCOUNTS: comps accelerating with value-seeking traffic - Apparel and home fashions both positive - New-store pipeline adding incremental square footage GUIDANCE - FY guide brackets the $7.45 EPS consensus; low-single-digit comps - Tariff cost and cautious-consumer cushion embedded DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Ross Stores Q1 FY2027 Earnings Release (2026-05-21) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in ROST. Do your own research before any investment decision. #ROST #RossStores #OffPriceRetail #DiscountRetail #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha