Episode Details

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $238.08 - same - BUY below $215.00 with $175.00 stop - AVOID above $300.00 TRIGGER: A clean Grand Theft Auto Six launch with strong opening sales and stable live-service monetization would justify pushing conviction to four out of five and a re-rate toward the $300 consensus target. WINDOW: 12-18 months. TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/TTWO WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 44 Buy / 12 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $286.27 (range $200 - $320) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: Charged Alpha agrees with the Buy direction but is more cautious on conviction given the price already paid. THESIS Take-Two owns the single most valuable release in the industry's history in Grand Theft Auto Six, enters the launch year with a net cash balance sheet, and consensus sees FY2027 revenue up 37 percent with a return to GAAP profitability. Bull lever: If Grand Theft Auto Six launches clean and the online service monetizes the way Grand Theft Auto Online did for a decade, FY2027 net bookings and free cash flow could land at the high end of the range and re-rate the stock past $300. Key risk: The launch is the entire story. Another delay, a weak opening, or soft live-service uptake would hit a stock that already trades near its 52-week high and prices a flawless outcome. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B+ (Strauss Zelnick has run Take-Two for nearly two decades and built it into a top-three Western publisher. The GTA VI delays have tested patience, but the franchise stewardship is best-in-class.) - Earnings quality grade: C+ (The headline is a GAAP loss with thin operating margin, and a large negative working-capital swing distorts the quarter. Cash generation is real but earnings quality is muddied by pre-launch accounting and deferral.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:25 The Print 1:22 The Trend 2:11 The Segments 2:53 The FCF Bridge 3:36 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:36 Peer Dot-Plot 5:18 Management & Earnings Quality 6:51 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $1,679.8M (+6.15% YoY, +6.32% vs est) - EPS GAAP: -$0.32 (net loss; pre-launch investment year) - Gross margin: 55.88% - Operating margin: 0.86% - FY2026 revenue: $6.66B record (+18% YoY) - FCF: Q4 $187M / FY ~$450M - Net cash: $1.09B (debt cut $3.9B to $470M) - EV/Sales: ~6.5x REVENUE MIX - Recurrent consumer spending: ~75% of revenue - Mobile (Zynga): ~50% of revenue, steadiest line - Full game & other: lumpiest line, quiet pre-GTA VI GUIDANCE - FY2027 framed a record year on Grand Theft Auto Six - Consensus revenue ~$9.1B (+37%); return to GAAP profitability DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Take-Two Interactive Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release (2026-05-21) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in TTWO. Do your own research before any investment decision. #TTWO #TakeTwo #GTA6 #GrandTheftAuto #gaming #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha