Episode Details

Deckers Outdoor Corporation Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $102.62 - same - BUY below $88.00 with $75.00 stop - AVOID above $125.00 TRIGGER: Watch for HOKA growth re-accelerating above the mid-teens and operating margin stabilizing in fiscal Q1 and Q2 -- that combination would justify pushing the call back to BUY. WINDOW: 12-18 months. TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/DECK WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 1 Strong Buy / 24 Buy / 25 Hold / 6 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $116.60 (range $80 - $150) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: Charged Alpha call is in line with consensus. THESIS Deckers is a debt-free, forty-percent-ROE footwear compounder with two genuinely strong brands, but after a year of margin give-back and decelerating growth the stock at fourteen-and-a-half times earnings is priced for exactly what it is -- fairly. Bull lever: If HOKA re-accelerates into the mid-to-high teens and operating margin stabilizes, FY2027 EPS clears $7.50 and the stock can re-rate toward $125 plus. Key risk: Tariffs and a more promotional footwear marketplace keep compressing margin while HOKA growth keeps cooling -- a single-digit grower at a growth-stock multiple would de-rate toward $80. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B+ (Disciplined operator; aggressive buybacks, no debt, but a margin guide-down tempers the grade.) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (Clean GAAP earnings, no adjustments, strong cash conversion on a TTM basis; the only flags are the seasonal cash swing and softer Q4 margin.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:18 The Print 1:05 The Trend 1:51 The Segments 2:35 The FCF Bridge 3:25 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:27 Peer Dot-Plot 5:14 Management & Earnings Quality 6:53 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $1,119M (+9.55% YoY, +9.1% vs lowered est) - EPS GAAP: $0.96 (-3.0% YoY) - FY2026 Revenue: $5,472M (+9.8%); FY2026 EPS: $7.02 (+10.9%) - Gross margin: 57.6% (+84bps YoY) - Operating margin: 14.0% (-300bps YoY) - FCF (TTM): ~$868M; FCF yield ~6.0% - Net cash: $1.53B (no borrowed debt) BRAND HIGHLIGHTS - HOKA: ~half of revenue, full-year growth ~10% (decelerating) - UGG: the cash cow, full-year growth ~9% - Other (Teva, AHNU): immaterial - Direct-to-consumer: ~40% of mix, growing GUIDANCE - FY27 guide ~$6.0B revenue (~10% growth), EPS ~$7.35 - Tone cautious: tariffs and promotional marketplace flagged DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Deckers Outdoor Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release (2026-05-21) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in DECK. Do your own research before any investment decision. #DECK #DeckersOutdoor #HOKA #UGG #footwear #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha