Episode Details

Auna SA Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: AVOID (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $4.38 - AVOID - BUY below $3.00 with $2.00 stop - AVOID above $5.50 TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of operating margin above 12 percent AND net-debt-to-EBITDA below 4.5x WINDOW: Through Q3 FY26 earnings (Nov 2026) - revisit only after margin stabilization signal TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/AUNA WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 1 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $6.50 (range $4 - $9) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: MORE NEGATIVE THESIS Auna is a LATAM hospital ADR with currency exposure and 5x net-debt leverage that just had a 73 percent EPS miss. Bull lever: Mexican peso stabilization combined with Auntras integration synergy capture could restore 12 percent op margin by FY27. Key risk: Mexican peso continues depreciating against the Sol or EBITDA cover drops below 2x triggering a refinancing event. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: C+ (Jesus Zamora has executed the regional roll-up but the FY26 EPS guidance cut after just one quarter signals visibility issues at the segment level.) - Earnings quality grade: C (GAAP and adjusted EPS aligned at 5 cents. FX-translation losses are real but recurring. Cash conversion held up at 142 percent of net income.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:39 The Print 1:33 The Trend 2:14 The Segments 3:01 The FCF Bridge 3:48 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:59 Peer Dot-Plot 5:30 Management & Earnings Quality 6:52 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue: $336M (+19.0 pct YoY USD, +4.7 pct vs est) - GAAP EPS: $0.05 (vs $0.19 est, -73.7 pct miss) - EPS YoY: -73.7 pct - Gross margin: 36.5 pct (down 150bps YoY) - Operating margin: 7.0 pct GAAP (down 700bps YoY) - Net income: $12M - Free cash flow: $17M (5.1 pct margin) - Net debt: $3.32B | Net-debt-to-EBITDA: 5.4x (peer median 2.5x) SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - Peru Hospitals + Oncosalud (45 pct): +11 pct YoY -- cash engine - Mexico Hospitals (38 pct): +28 pct YoY on Auntras acquisition; FX headwind - Colombia Hospitals (17 pct): +22 pct YoY - Operating margin compression concentrated in Mexico: peso -9 pct vs Sol GUIDANCE - CUT on EPS line - FY26 sales growth: 12 pct to 18 pct (vs Street 14) - FY26 EPS growth: CUT to -30 pct to -10 pct (vs Street +5 pct) - Q2 revenue $340-$360M, midpoint in-line with consensus NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q4 FY25 call (Mar): "continued margin recovery into second half of 2026" - Q1 FY26 call (May): "reducing FY26 EPS outlook on Mexican peso depreciation and integration costs" - Tone shift: constructive - defensive DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Auna SA Q1 2026 Press Release (2026-05-19) - Q1 2026 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in AUNA. Do your own research before any investment decision. #AUNA #Auna #LATAMHealthcare #HospitalADR #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha