Episode Details

TJX Companies Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $157.29 - BUY - BUY below $155.00 with $130.00 stop - AVOID above $180.00 TRIGGER: Q2 FY27 comp sales above plus 4 percent OR FY guide raised on Q2 call WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2027 earnings (mid-November 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/TJX WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 10 Strong Buy / 8 Buy / 7 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $184.00 (range $160 - $197) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS TJX is the cleanest off-price compounder in retail - the treasure-hunt assortment plus closeout-buying scale gives it a structural advantage over every full-price competitor, in every macro regime. Bull lever: TJX International is still under-penetrated. Europe and Australia combined are 14 percent of revenue and growing 13 percent YoY - every new store opens to over-plan productivity. International scaling is the single biggest multi-year revenue lever the model has left. Key risk: Multiple compression on guidance. The stock trades at 30x forward earnings - well above the 22x peer median. If Q2 comps come in below plus 3 percent or management trims FY guide, the multiple could correct toward 25x - meaningful downside even with intact fundamentals. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A (Ernie Herrman team has delivered consistent comps and disciplined capital returns since 2016. The off-price model has been compounded for three decades with virtually no strategic missteps. Shareholder-friendly buybacks plus dividends, no transformational M&A risk.) - Earnings quality grade: A (Earnings are exceptionally clean. Cash conversion is high, GAAP and adjusted EPS match exactly, SBC dilution is minimal at under 1 percent of revenue, and inventory build is matched precisely to forward sales growth.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:32 The Print 1:31 The Trend 2:19 The Segments 3:00 The FCF Bridge 4:04 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 5:01 Peer Dot-Plot 5:42 Management & Earnings Quality 6:28 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 FY2027 - Revenue: $14,323M (+9.2 pct YoY, beat 2.2 pct) - Adj EPS: $1.19 (vs $1.02 est, +16.7 pct beat) - Comps: +4 pct YoY (transaction-driven) - Gross margin ~32 pct - FY27 guidance: comps +3-4 pct reaffirmed SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - Marmaxx (62 pct): TJ Maxx + Marshalls -- off-price engine - HomeGoods (16 pct): home furnishings - TJX International (14 pct): Europe + Australia - TJX Canada (8 pct): Winners/HomeSense DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - TJX Companies Q1 FY2027 Earnings Release (2026-05-20) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in TJX. Do your own research before any investment decision. #TJX #TJXCompanies #TJMaxx #Marshalls #offprice #retail #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha