Episode Details

Intuit Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $307.89 - BUY - BUY below $295.00 with $270.00 stop - AVOID above $420.00 TRIGGER: Q4 FY26 print in-line or better OR Credit Karma growth re-accelerating above 15 percent YoY WINDOW: Through Q1 FY2027 earnings (late November 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/INTU WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 12 Strong Buy / 10 Buy / 8 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $427.50 (range $360 - $720) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED, LOWER CONVICTION THESIS Intuit is the dominant US small-business and consumer-tax software franchise. The growth algorithm is resetting from high-teens to mid-teens, but the cash-generation engine - 61 percent Q3 FCF margin, 9 percent FCF yield - is more durable than the multiple compression suggests. Bull lever: Intuit Assist - the company's AI agent layer across QuickBooks, TurboTax, and Credit Karma - is still in early monetization. If management can attach AI revenue at even a 5 percent premium to existing ARPU, that is a 200 basis-point reacceleration to the growth algo and reopens the multiple discussion. Key risk: The real risk is that Credit Karma growth stays in the mid-teens rather than reaccelerating to the 20-plus the bull case requires - and that small business net adds plateau as US small businesses slow in late 2026. If both happen, the FY27 mid-teens EPS framework becomes the new ceiling rather than the floor. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A (Sasan Goodarzi team has delivered every fiscal year since 2019 with one of the cleanest execution records in software. The FY27 walk-down was telegraphed, not stealth-cut. Capital return is consistent: 1.675 billion of buybacks this quarter plus 333 million in dividends.) - Earnings quality grade: A- (Earnings quality remains strong on cash conversion - TTM FCF of 7.7 billion converts at 1.7 times net income on the income quality ratio. The SBC dilution at 9.7 percent of revenue is the chronic knock on the story; buybacks have offset roughly 50 percent of the issuance over the last three years.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:36 The Print 1:28 The Trend 2:14 The Segments 2:48 The FCF Bridge 3:45 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:47 Peer Dot-Plot 5:31 Management & Earnings Quality 7:11 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q3 FY2026 - Revenue: $8,558M (+10.4 pct YoY) - GAAP EPS: $11.09 (beat consensus) - Operating margin: 47.0 pct (-90 bps YoY) - FCF: $5,236M (+20 pct YoY) - FCF yield: 9.0 pct at $307.89 SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - Consumer (TurboTax) -- 47 pct: Seasonal peak; online growth continues - SBSE (QuickBooks) -- 31 pct: +12 pct YoY; AI features driving upsell - Credit Karma -- 16 pct: Recovery in personal loans + credit card referrals - ProTax -- 6 pct: Stable WHY THE STOCK DROPPED 19.8 PCT FY27 guidance walk-down: management shifted language from "high-teens EPS growth" to "mid-teens" for FY27. Market had priced INTU as a high-growth franchise (40x earnings). Multiple reset to 18.6x on slower growth signal. DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Intuit Q3 FY2026 Earnings Release (2026-05-22) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in INTU. Do your own research before any investment decision. #INTU #Intuit #TurboTax #QuickBooks #fintech #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha