Episode Details

MakeMyTrip Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $42.93 - HOLD - BUY below $36.00 with $30.00 stop - AVOID above $52.00 TRIGGER: Q2 FY27 hotels and packages above plus 10 percent YoY OR Myra-attributable revenue disclosed above 25 percent of bookings WINDOW: Through Q2 FY2027 earnings (Nov 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/MMYT WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 2 Strong Buy / 4 Buy / 5 Hold / 2 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $48.00 (range $32 - $62) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED, MORE CAUTIOUS THESIS Dominant India OTA but Myra AI unit economics not yet proven. Bull lever: India travel TAM compounds mid-teens. Myra hitting 25% bookings target re-rates multiple back to 5x sales. Key risk: Two-quarter EPS deterioration plus soft FY27 guide. Negative book value limits multiple expansion. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B (Rajesh Magow team has built MMYT into the dominant Indian OTA over 15 years. Capital allocation is fine; the AI investment cycle is large but defensible.) - Earnings quality grade: C+ (Cash conversion fell to zero this quarter on CapEx step-up; SBC is 5 percent of revenue which is elevated; negative book equity is a structural concern.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:35 The Print 1:41 The Trend 2:31 The Segments 3:16 The FCF Bridge 4:02 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:56 Peer Dot-Plot 5:38 Management & Earnings Quality 7:09 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $0.250B (+2.0% YoY) - Adjusted EPS: $0.25 (vs $0.31 est, MISS -19.4%; DOWN 40.5% YoY) - Gross margin: 58.3% - Operating margin: 16.0% (+330 bps YoY) - Net income: $0.024B (-17.0% YoY) - Free cash flow: $0M (CapEx step-up for Myra AI infrastructure) SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - Hotels & Packages: +4% YoY (55% of revenue) - decelerating from +12% - Air Ticketing: +7% YoY (35% of revenue) - Bus & Other: +18% YoY (10% of revenue) - upside surprise - Myra AI hit 12% of bookings; retention ahead of plan, unit economics still being proven GUIDANCE - SOFT - FY27 sales growth: 10% to 14% (below Street 14%) - FY27 op margin: 16.0% to 17.5% - FY27 EPS growth: -10% to 0% (vs Street +8%) NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q3 FY26 call (Jan): "Myra AI rollout to drive incremental booking velocity through fiscal 2027" - Q4 FY26 call (May): "Myra is exceeding retention assumptions, but CAC dynamics are taking longer than expected to leverage" - Tone shift: confident growth - qualified caution on unit economics DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - MakeMyTrip Q4 FY2026 Press Release (2026-05-19) - Q4 FY26 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in MMYT. Do your own research before any investment decision. #MMYT #MakeMyTrip #India #travel #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha