Episode Details

Hesai Group Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $20.25 - BUY - BUY below $18.00 with $13.00 stop - AVOID above $28.00 TRIGGER: Q2 FY26 revenue above $130M OR another Tier-1 OEM design win disclosed WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2026 earnings (mid-Nov 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/HSAI WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 5 Strong Buy / 5 Buy / 4 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $24.50 (range $14 - $32) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS HSAI is the lowest-burn LiDAR pure play with the cleanest design-win pipeline. Bull lever: Mercedes ramp plus 3 new OEM wins this quarter. LiDAR attach rate is rising 30%+ annually on premium EVs. Key risk: China-tariff escalation could shut HSAI out of US robotaxi pipeline. Q1 op margin still negative; profitability is committed but not delivered. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (Yifan Li management has executed every design-win milestone since IPO. Capital-light approach with chip-fab partnerships is disciplined.) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (Earnings just turned positive on small base. Gross margin compressed YoY on mix shift. Inventory build needs to clear by Q3.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:37 The Print 1:39 The Trend 2:23 The Segments 3:03 The FCF Bridge 3:50 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:44 Peer Dot-Plot 5:25 Management & Earnings Quality 6:41 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue: $0.099B (+37.5% YoY) - Adjusted EPS: $0.02 (vs $0.009 est, BEAT 119%) - Gross margin: 39.1% - Operating margin: -4.8% (+160 bps YoY) - Net income: $0.018B (flipped positive from loss) - Free cash flow: $-11M (improving from -$46M YoY) SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - ADAS LiDAR (passenger EVs): +45% YoY (60% of revenue) - Mercedes ramp - Autonomous Driving (Robotaxi/Trucking): +35% YoY (30%) - Industrial & Other: +20% YoY (10%) - Mercedes-Benz S-Class and EQS production lines now LIVE GUIDANCE - RAISED - FY26 sales growth: 32% to 40% (RAISED above Street 30%) - FY26 op margin: 2.0% to 6.0% - FY26 EPS growth: 80% to 120% (vs Street +65%) NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q4 FY25 call (Mar): "expect first Mercedes production volume in back half of 2026" - Q1 FY26 call (May): "Mercedes-Benz S-Class and EQS production lines now live; accelerating FY27 pipeline" - Tone shift: anticipation - confirmation, three new design wins disclosed DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Hesai Group Q1 2026 Press Release (2026-05-19) - Q1 2026 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in HSAI. Do your own research before any investment decision. #HSAI #Hesai #LiDAR #Mercedes #ChineseEV #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha