Episode Details

Driven Brands Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $12.99 - HOLD - BUY below $11.50 with $9.50 stop - AVOID above $17.00 TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of Take 5 same-store sales above 5 percent OR net debt below $2.3B WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2026 earnings (early Nov 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/DRVN WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 2 Strong Buy / 4 Buy / 4 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $17.00 (range $11 - $22) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: SLIGHTLY MORE CAUTIOUS THESIS DRVN is a high-FCF franchise consolidator with a leveraged balance sheet and a clean post-divestiture margin profile. Bull lever: Take 5 oil change unit growth accelerating; 35 net new units this quarter; Q1 franchise sign-up record. Key risk: $2.56B net debt limits multiple expansion even on flawless execution; rate-cut sensitivity is high. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B (Daniel Rivera has executed the carwash divestiture cleanly and pivoted capital to Take 5 unit growth. Leverage management is the open question.) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (Clean EPS to FCF conversion. SBC modest. Divestiture distortion is the one watch item on YoY comps.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:49 The Print 1:54 The Trend 2:51 The Segments 3:39 The FCF Bridge 4:28 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 5:24 Peer Dot-Plot 6:08 Management & Earnings Quality 7:20 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue: $460M (-10.9 pct YoY headline; carwash divestiture distorts comp; SSS +2.5 pct) - Adjusted EPS: $0.34 (vs $0.24 est, +42 pct beat) - Gross margin: 57.5 pct - Operating margin: 14.5 pct GAAP (+260 bps YoY) - Net income: $55M (tripled vs prior year) - Free cash flow: $54M (11.7 pct margin) SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - Take 5 Oil Change (42 pct of revenue): +12 pct YoY; 35 net new units; Q1 franchise sign-up record - Maintenance + Glass (Meineke / Maaco / Auto Glass Now, 38 pct): +3 pct YoY - Collision (CARSTAR + Driven Lighthouse, 14 pct): -3 pct on insurance-rate pressure - Platform Services (6 pct): flat - Post-divestiture portfolio structurally above 15 pct operating margin GUIDANCE - RAISED - FY26 SSS: 2 pct to 4 pct (raised from 1-3 pct) - FY26 adj op margin: 15 pct to 17 pct - FY26 EPS growth: 18 pct to 25 pct (vs Street 15 pct) - Q2 revenue $480-$500M brackets consensus $485M NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q4 FY25 call (Feb): "car wash divestiture closes our portfolio simplification chapter; focus is Take 5 unit growth" - Q1 FY26 call (May): "Take 5 unit growth accelerating; Q1 franchise sign-up record; reaffirming Rule of 20 by FY27" - Tone shift: stabilizing - confident-executing DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Driven Brands Q1 2026 Press Release (2026-05-19) - Q1 2026 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in DRVN. Do your own research before any investment decision. #DRVN #DrivenBrands #Take5OilChange #AutoService #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha